In the context of whether or not Richmond mayoral and City Council candidates can impact Richmond’s high unemployment rate and which ones have the best ideas, I thought this article was interesting. The article is consistent with what I have been saying that Richmond is caught in a national and regional trend that cannot be bucked by simply being more “business friendly.”
For you greenbashing candidates (the “establishment candidates,” as I call them), note the following: “Some sectors of the Bay Area already appear robust. Venture capital is flowing into green and alternative energy companies. Mindful of those trends, San Jose Mayor Chuck Reed told the gathering that it is crucial that the Bay Area do all it can to ensure those jobs are not sent to other states or countries. "Jobs in the cleantech sector can spin off multiple jobs in other sectors," Reed said. "The challenge is to keep these cleantech jobs in the Bay Area."
Bay Area job rebound years away
Economic forecast points to slow recovery throughout region
By George Avalos
Contra Costa Times
Posted: 10/21/2010 03:02:53 PM PDT
Updated: 10/21/2010 04:47:31 PM PDT
SAN JOSE -- Every region of the Bay Area is years away from being able to recapture the jobs that were erased by the recession, an economist told a government gathering here Thursday.
"The Bay Area recovery will be slow in coming," Jon Haveman, a partner and co-founder of Beacon Economics, told the Association of Bay Area Governments, which was holding its fall general assembly in downtown San Jose. "The recovery will be uneven."
Among the big reasons: Every part of the Bay Area is far below its peak employment levels of 2007 and 2008, according to an analysis of seasonally adjusted figures from the state's Employment Development Department.
The Bay Area's employment levels hit their most recent peak in February 2008. Since then, the nine-county region's employment base has shriveled by 9.3 percent.
For that reason, a recovery to the prior peak levels -- if no fresh recession surfaces in the meantime -- remains several years away, according to estimates supplied to the Association of Bay Area Governments on Thursday by Haveman.
The Bay Area job market will not rebound until the fourth quarter of 2015, Haveman said. The East Bay also won't bounce back before 2015. The South Bay will see strong employment growth, but not enough to produce a recovery until sometime in 2014. The San Francisco region will not be able to climb back to its peak levels until late 2015.
"The East Bay is still experiencing job deterioration," Haveman said in an interview after his presentation. "The South Bay is doing reasonably well. There is more evidence that private sector job growth is occurring in the South Bay."
A separate report released Thursday by the Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific in Stockton also predicted that Silicon Valley's economy could bounce back more quickly than other parts of Northern California.
The San Jose metro area "continues to be the only area in Northern California that is clearly recovering," the noted in a news release. "We project 3 percent job growth for San Jose in 2011 and 2012, and this strength will eventually spill over to its lagging neighbors."
Some sectors of the Bay Area already appear robust. Venture capital is flowing into green and alternative energy companies.
Mindful of those trends, San Jose Mayor Chuck Reed told the gathering that it is crucial that the Bay Area do all it can to ensure those jobs are not sent to other states or countries.
"Jobs in the cleantech sector can spin off multiple jobs in other sectors," Reed said. "The challenge is to keep these cleantech jobs in the Bay Area."
Mercury News staff writer Frank Michael Russell contributed to this story. Contact George Avalos at 925-977-8477.
FROM THE PEAK ...
Every region of the Bay Area has seen a drop in jobs since employment peaked:
· The East Bay's employment base is down 11.2 percent from its peak level.
· The South Bay is down 8.3 percent.
· The San Francisco-Marin-San Mateo region is down 8.9 percent.
Source: Beacon Economics