I have placed on the City Council agenda for a meeting scheduled sometime in February a discussion and direction by the City Council to staff regarding the preparation of a contingency plan should Chevron abandon, sell or downsize operations at its Richmond Refinery.

The drumbeat from Chevron and its surrogates about abandoning, selling or downsizing its Richmond refinery continues to grow. See “Chevron Threatens to Leave Its Longtime Home.” A Christmas Day 2009 article “Chilly Climate for Oil Refiners” (see below) in the New York Times describes a permanent and substantial decline in demand for gasoline, a structural excess of refining capacity and plummeting profits for refiners.

Sources close to Chevron tell me on almost a daily basis that the corporation has ramped up its consideration of a major change in its Richmond refinery, and we are no longer talking about expansion.

A City in which a Chevron refinery constitutes the largest landowner, the largest taxpayer and the largest employer would be irresponsible to take such warnings lightly.

We, as a City Council, have a duty to our residents to contemplate what life would be like after Chevron and prepare a contingency plan to mitigate the impacts and capitalize on the opportunities. The possibilities are of potentially such a magnitude, that it would be well to incorporate the contingency plan into the General Plan that is scheduled for adoption this year.

Depending on whether the refinery is sold to another refiner, downsized or simply abandoned will each have a different set of widely differing impacts and opportunities, so we have to look at each one.

The possibility of a Chevron transition carries the obvious concerns about impacts on tax revenue, employment and local business. On the other hand, it could dramatically improve the quality of air and water in and around Richmond as well as the health of our residents. Would crime increase or decrease? Would the city’s image improve or decline? Would the massive cleanup of 100 years of pollution at the sprawling refinery create more jobs than simply operating it? If Chevron land were acquired by the City through eminent domain and sold for redevelopment at the bargain basement values assigned by the Contra Costa County Assessment Appeals Board, it might set off a land rush like one other. There are many questions but no ready answers.

We, as a City, do not want to be caught with our proverbial pants down. We do not want to wake up some morning and ask, “What happened.” We have to have a plan, and we have to start working on it immediately.

Chilly Climate for Oil Refiners
By JAD MOUAWAD - New York Times, December 24, 2009

Only a few years ago, a cry went up that the United States needed more oil refineries. The perceived shortage was so acute that George W. Bush, president at the time, even offered disused military bases as sites for building them.

Not only did that never come to pass, but the reverse is now happening. The business of oil refining is mired in a deep crisis, with five refineries having shut down this year, including plants in Delaware, New Jersey, California and New Mexico.

Gasoline demand, which many analysts had long expected to keep rising for decades, is down sharply in the recession. And refiners are increasingly convinced that even after the economy recovers, demand will not grow much in coming years because of the rise of alternative fuel supplies and the advent of tougher efficiency standards for automobiles.

The recent closings signal the end of a period from roughly 2004 to 2008, when demand soared, refineries operated near capacity and profits swelled. For drivers, that meant gasoline prices at $3 or $4 a gallon, especially when hurricanes knocked out refining capacity on the Gulf Coast. For refiners, this gilded period turned out to have been an anomaly.

Plagued by boom-and-bust cycles of rapid expansion followed by sharp belt-tightening, refining companies have often struggled to operate at a profit. That is a contrast to the production side of the oil business, long a road to riches.

“Oil production creates wealth, but oil refining has often destroyed it,” said Costanza Jacazio, an analyst at Barclays Capital in New York.

Even so, these are unusually harsh times for oil refiners. The recent drop in gasoline demand could result in more refineries being closed in the coming year.

“We have too much capacity,” said Lynn D. Westfall, the chief economist at the Tesoro Corporation, a midsize refiner, who estimated that the industry’s capacity of 18 million barrels a day must be cut 5 to 8 percent. “We need refineries to be shut down.”

Refineries, especially smaller ones, have been closing for many years. The number of refineries in the United States fell to about 150 in recent years from more than 300 in 1982. At the same time, the nation’s refining capacity grew by about 13 percent, as companies expanded their most efficient refineries.

But the shutdowns are now coming so fast that the United States is losing capacity as refiners struggle to match their output to falling demand. Some energy experts have said that gasoline consumption most likely peaked in 2007, when it reached 9.7 million barrels a day, and will not rise to that level again.

Even as demand has dropped, gasoline is still relatively expensive because of high oil prices. Gasoline prices have dropped to an average of $2.58 a gallon, according to the motorist group AAA, with many analysts predicting further declines this winter.

Gasoline consumption fell 3.5 percent last year, the steepest decline since 1965, while diesel consumption fell 6.8 percent, the most in 28 years. Both are set to fall again this year.

Government mandates for ethanol, meanwhile, are expected to grow through 2022. Biofuel supplies, which were negligible a few years ago, are set to reach 15 billion gallons in 2012 and 36 billion gallons in 2022. As production grows, ethanol and other biofuels displace gasoline and diesel; at many gasoline pumps ethanol is now 10 percent of the blend, and the ethanol industry is pushing to raise the percentage.

The refining industry is also faced with a new political reality. Unlike the Bush administration, which offered support and incentives to petroleum producers, the goal of the Obama administration is to encourage alternative fuels and reduce the use of gasoline.

Refiners are complaining about the climate change legislation is making its way through Congress, fearing that it will impose higher costs on the petroleum industry and result in more gasoline imports from lower-cost refiners overseas.

The increase in automobile fuel-efficiency standards — by 2016, the fleet average will rise to 35.5 miles per gallon from an average of about 25 miles per gallon for vehicles on the road today — is expected to reduce oil consumption by a total of 1.8 billion barrels between 2012 and 2016. Automakers from General Motors to Nissan are also betting on a new generation of electric cars that will become available in the next few years.

In a speech this month at the Los Angeles auto show, Robert A. Lutz, General Motors’ vice chairman for marketing, said, “The automobile industry simply can no longer rely on oil to supply 98 percent of the world’s automotive energy requirements.”

That leaves refiners with difficult choices: cut costs and hope to survive the downturn; try to sell plants; or shut down unprofitable refineries. “The industry is on its collective knees right now,” said Charles T. Drevna, president of the National Petrochemical and Refiners Association.

About 700,000 barrels a day of refining capacity have been idled or shut down in North America in the last year, according Aaron Brady, an oil expert at IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

The industry is expanding elsewhere around the world, especially in Asia, where gasoline demand is expected to rise in the coming decades. Thanks to multibillion dollar projects in China, India and Saudi Arabia, the industry is expected to add two million barrels a day of refining capacity this year, even as global oil demand drops by around 1.7 million barrels a day, or about 2 percent, according to Barclays.

American refiners are bearing much of the brunt of the downturn. Last year, the American industry operated at 85.3 percent of capacity, the lowest level since 1988, according to the Energy Department. The utilization level is on track to sink to 75 percent this year, compared with highs above 90 percent just five years ago.

The Valero Energy Corporation, the nation’s largest refiner, announced this month that it had shut down its refinery in Delaware City, Del., which could process 210,000 barrels of oil a day. Once the industry’s highflier, Valero, based in San Antonio, has seen its stock price plummet as a result of the economic downturn. The stock is down 22 percent this year, after a 69 percent drop in 2008.

“The golden age of refining — if it ever existed — didn’t last very long,” said Bill Day, a spokesman for Valero.

Two other refineries were shut down since October: Sunoco’s Eagle Point plant, in Westville, N.J., and Western Refining’s plant in Bloomfield, N.M., with a combined capacity of about 160,000 barrels a day. Refineries in California and Aruba, the latter operating primarily to supply the United States market, were also closed earlier this year.

Oil majors, like independent refiners, are also suffering. Exxon Mobil’s domestic refineries lost $203 million in the third quarter, a period when earnings at its global refining business dropped by $2.7 billion, to $325 million. Chevron earned $34 million at its domestic refineries in the last quarter, compared with more than $1 billion a year earlier.

In a bid to diversify its supplies, Valero, which has 15 refineries in the United States, Aruba and Canada, has recently bought a handful of ethanol refineries. Even though ethanol refiners have also struggled in the recession, mandates passed by Congress ensure that increasing amounts of that fuel are likely to be mixed into the nation’s gasoline supply in coming years.

“We recognize that ethanol is an important side of the fuel mix that is not going to go anywhere,” said Mr. Day, of Valero. “That’s where the future of demand growth and transportation fuels will be.”